The Determinants Of Structural Transformation In Africa Evidence From Ethiopia

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of structural transformation inrnEthiopia. The study relied on data obtained and constructed from various sources and comprisedrnseven variables, covering the period 1981 to 2015. The study also analyzed trends of structuralrntransformation in Africa for the same period. In this study, an Autoregressive Distributive Lagrnbound test method was employed to co-integration in order to investigate the long run relationshiprnand Error Correction Model between structural transformation (dependent variable) and therndependent variables (urbanization, trade openness, share of agricultural value added, GDP perrncapita, network index, and gross capital formation). The result reveals that there is a stable longrnrun relationship between structural transformation and its determinants. In the long run; grossrncapital formation and gdp per capita are positively associated and significantly affected structuralrntransformation; whereas agricultural value added is significantly affected structuralrntransformation though the relationship is inverse with negative expected sign. Similarly, the shortrnrun coefficients show that gross capital formation, gdp per capita, urbanization and network indexrnare positively associated with structural transformation. Like the long run, the share of agriculturernis negatively associated with structural transformation. The trend analysis results for Africa showsrnshare of agricultural in gdp fell from 61.6 percent in 1981 to 49.8 percent in 2010. What is striking,rnhowever, is that manufacturing did not expand during this period. Finally, the error correctionrncoefficient is highly significant and the correct negative sign and imply a very high speed ofrnadjustment to equilibrium and the ECM confirms the existence of a stable long-un relationship.rnThe policy implication is that investments in gross capital formation, network infrastructure,rndeclining investment in agricultural development and urbanization are crucial to acceleraternstructural transformation.rnKey Words: Ethiopia, Structural Transformation, ARDL, Bound test, Trend, Determinants.

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The Determinants Of Structural Transformation In Africa Evidence From Ethiopia

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