The Effect Of Climate Change Induced Productivity Change On Food Security And Food Market Of Ethiopia Cge Modeling

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Ethiopia is known as food insufficient country. It depends mainly on its agricultural sector forrnfood production which is rainfall dependent. The performance of this sector has remained lowrnmainly because of recurrent drought inherently happened as a result of climate change. Owing tornthe variability of the rainfall and temperature in the country, Climate change is anticipated to havernan impact on the productivity of the agricultural sector. The thesis is therefore simulates therneffect of climate change induced agricultural productivity change on food security and foodrnmarket of Ethiopia. A recursive dynamic CGE model is used with three climate scenariosrn(CGCM2, peM and HadCM3). In the finding, it is revealed that food availability problem isrnstressed from a decline in per capita food production with negative yield growth elasticity and anrnincrease in food supply price under climate change. In addition, food access problem is alsornhassled with a reduction in per capita income and per capita food consumption expenditure. In arnnutshell, food poverty is intensified from general welfare loss under climate change. ThernHadCM3 climate projection provides the worst scenario followed by the CGCM2 climaternforecasting. It has generalized that climate change will be the main challenge to the future on thernfood security problem of Ethiopia. Finally, the paper recommended that climate changernadaptation is required to create resilience capacity; diversification of the income source for bothrnthe rural and urban households and improving the farming technology and practice is suggested.rnIt is also required to expand farm irrigation, develop road infrastructure, establishing efficientrnclimate forecasting and communication technology, and improving market efficiency.

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The Effect Of Climate Change Induced Productivity Change On Food Security And Food Market Of Ethiopia Cge Modeling

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