A Multlvaviate Time Series Analysis Of Agrometeorological Data To Assess The Effect Of Climate Variability On Production Of Sorghum The Case Of Melkassa Ethiopia

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Climate change affects all economic sectors to some degree, but the agricultural sector isrnperhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable. In the last three decades, Ethiopia has been affectedrnby climare-related hazards. Agriculture, the most dominant sector in the national economy, hasrnbeen most at risk because of its dependence on seasonal rainfall. Anticipated climate change hasrnnegatively impacted the agricultural sector due to increased temperatures and decreased orrngreater variability in precipitation, leading to increased food insecurity.rnThe aim of this thesis is to study the effects of rainfall and temperature on sorghum yield overrnlong period of time.rnThe study consists of thirty two years consecutive summer seasons total summer rainfall in mm,rnaverage temperature in degree centigrade and sorghum yield of medium maturing Gambella-rn1107 variety in quintal per hectare (Qlh) which is used as a control variety in MelkossarnResearch Center of E1AR. Multivariate time series analysis that is Vector Auto Regressive modelrnis used for this study.rnThe results obtained show that rainfall and yield are highly variable. Rainfall shock hasrnsignificant impact on rainfall temperature and yield, temperature shock has a significant impactrnon temperature rainfall and yield and also yield shock has a significant impact on yield. It wasrnobserved that rainfall variation could fully be explained by its own innovations. Forrntemperature, in the first round, 56% variation of temperature has resulted ji-om the shock of itsrnown innovation and 44% variation resulted from the change in rainfall. Yield variation of up torn48.1% is explained by changes in rainfall amounts, the percentage contribution of yield shockrnfor its forecast variance is around 48.6%.rnThere exist high inter annual variability in summer rainfall total which is an evidence to climaternvariability in the study area and also yield is highly variable. Past year and following yearrnrainfall temperature and yield are autocorelated and rainwater is a principal component inrndetermining sorghum yield.rnKeywords: VAR, Sorghum(Gambella#1107 variety), Melkassa

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A Multlvaviate Time Series Analysis Of Agrometeorological Data To Assess The Effect Of Climate Variability On Production Of Sorghum The Case Of Melkassa Ethiopia

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