Assessing The Impact Of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge Case Study Of Akaki Catchment Central Ethiopia

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This study was conducted in the Akaki catchment to assess climate change and its impacts onrngroundwater recharge with a total area of (1470 km2). To analyze the possible impacts of futurernclimate change on the groundwater recharge, climate projections for rainfall and temperaturerndata have been carried out using downscaled GCM (MIROC5) model output which in turn wasrnused as input to the WetSpass model to simulate future groundwater recharge and otherrnhydrological components based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The linear scaling biasrncorrection method was applied to adjust the bias for both temperature and rainfall projections.rnThe bias corrected MIROC5 has shown that near perfect match with observation in eachrnmeteorological station. The change in mean annual precipitation during 2050s is expected torndecrease by 2% in RCP4.5 but, increased by 3% in RCP8.5. During 2080s it expected tornincrease by 1% and 3% in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The rainfall shows an increasingrntrend under RCP8.5, but it is decreasing under RCP4.5 respect the baseline. In the period 2050s,rnthe change in mean annual temperature expected to increase by 1.5oC and 1.8oC in RCP4.5 andrnRCP8.5 respectively. During 2080s is also expected to increase by 2.1oC and 3.5oC in RCP4.5rnand RCP8.5 respectively. The change in temperature is expected to increase in the two projectedrnperiods. The simulated results from the WetSpass model showed that the annual averagernprecipitation (1131) mm is distributed as 42% of mean annual evapotranspiration (469mm),rn35% of runoff (396 mm), 23% of groundwater recharge (266mm) in the baseline. In 2050s, meanrnannual groundwater recharge is expected to be 257 mm and 269 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5rnrespectively. This shows decrease by 3 % in RCP4.5, but an increase by 2% in RCP 8.5. Inrn2080s this is expected to be 268 mm for RCP4.5 and 270 mm for RCP 8.5. It expected increasernby 1% and 2 % under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. Based on the results of the model, therngroundwater recharge shows an increasing trend in all scenarios, except in the period 2050srnunder RCP4.5. But, this result considered only future precipitation, maximum and minimumrntemperatures scenarios by assuming other parameters are constant. The rapid populationrngrowth in the catchment area, higher demand for water resources is inevitable. As a result,rnsound and effective groundwater management is compulsory.

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Assessing The Impact Of Climate Change On Groundwater Recharge Case Study Of Akaki Catchment Central Ethiopia

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