Economy Wide Impact Of Unilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization. A Recursive Dynamic Cge Model For Ethiopia The Case Of Epa

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This paper sets out to explore the economy wide effects of Ethiopia's measure to liberalize itsrnagricultural trade according to the rules of EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement). Thisrnobjective is undertaken by highlighting 011 sectoral and macroecollomic indicators. To this end,rnthe dy"amic recursive CGE modelillg approach in the COli text of the Ethiopiall economy is used.rnThe findings show that there is 110 Significant change in the economy by liberalizing thernagriculture sector only. Productivity ill the agricultural sector decreases together with the realrnGDP. Total investment in the economy declines while ullemployment gets deeper and deeperrncOllsecutively. Returns to factors of production decrease except a slight increase in the realrnwage rate. As a result, owners of factors of production are discouraged ill evelY sector.rnDomestic producers in the agriculture sector are lIegatively affected by the trade liberalizationrnmeasure. The opposite is true for producers in the lion agriculture sector. 011 the other halld,rnDomestic consumers are better off because of the availability of cheap agriculturalrncommodities. However, the aggregate supply of every composite commodity decreases togetherrnwith private cOllsumption.rnOn the other halld, government fiscal revenue falls, its cOllsumptioll rises however. Moreoverrntrade liberalization is likely to increase volume of export ill the lion agriculture sector.rnTherefore, the findillgs of this paper imply that domestic policies should be encouraging forrndomestic producers alld export oriented for the 11011 agricultural sectors.

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Economy Wide Impact Of Unilateral Agricultural Trade Liberalization. A Recursive Dynamic Cge Model  For Ethiopia The Case Of Epa

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