Determinants Of Export Performance Of Ethiopia A Gravity Model Analysis

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The purpose of this paper is to identify and empirically analyze determinants of exportrnperformance of Ethiopia. We began with a novel decomposition of the growth in countries'rnexports into the contribution from internal supply-side and external market accessrnconditions. Building on the results of this decomposition, we moved on to an econometricrnanalysis of the determinants of export performance. We employed a gravity model with arnpanel data using 30 Ethiopia's trading partners for the period 1995- 2007. Our model hasrnbeen estimated with Generalized Two Stages Least squares (G2SLS) estimation. Endogeneityrnof FDI and GDP to export, heterosckedasticity, and serial correlation for AR (1) arerncontrolled. The estimated result suggests that internal supply side conditions are one of thernmajor factors for export performance of Ethiopia . The result shows that good institutionalrnquality and internal transport infrastructure appear to be major determinants; whereas realrnexchange rate and FDI have no statistically significant effect on export performance ofrnEthiopia. Furthermore, the growth of domestic national income affects Ethiopian exportsrnpositively. According to the estimated result, foreign market access conditions also playarnsignificant role. The result indicates that import barriers imposed by Ethiopia's tradingrnpartners do play an important role in determining the volume of Ethiopian exports.rnMoreover, export performance is positively related to Ethiopia's trading partners ' incomernand distance, which is a proxy for transport costs, affects Ethiopian exports negatively.rnKey words and phrases: Ethiopia; Export; supply side factors; external market accessrncondition; Gravity model

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Determinants Of Export Performance Of Ethiopia A Gravity Model Analysis

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