Output Growth Money Supply And Inflation In A War-torn Economy Evidence From Sierra Leone

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Using annual time series data from 1966 to 1994 f or a war-ravaged economy like SierrarnLeone, the paper attempts to establish, via the direct Granger approach, a relationship betweenrnmoney and output on the one hand, and between each of these macroeconomic variables and pricesrnon the other. From the econometric results, it is apparent that a positive feedback relationshiprnexists between money growth and inflation, while a one-way causal relation exists between outputrngrowth and inflation with the strand of causation running from output to prices. It is suggested thatrnthe feedback which occur between money growth and inflation is attributable to the lags in revenuerncollection which allow the government to prompt the monetary authorities to create further money.rnThe additional money created results in excess demand and a rise in general prices of goods andrnservices. Consequently, this rise in general prices leads to increased fiscal deficits which therngovernment finance by creating additional money. In addition, output growth granger-causesrnmoney growth and money growth granger-causes output growth in the economy. The later,rnhowever, occurs without a definite pattern indicating a divergence between the results of this studyrnand those obtained by Barro (1978).rnrnApart from investigating the casual relation among output, money and prices, this paperrnalso examines the behavior of these macroeconomic variables with the aid of the Engle-Grangerrn(1987) two-step estimation procedure. The effect of unanticipated money growth on output growthrnin the long-run and short-run was also considered in the analysis. Our findings with regards tornthe effect of unanticipated money growth on output do not lend support to Barro's (1978) claimrnthat output increases with an increase in unexpected money growth. The impact of the rebel warrnon real output growth and general prices of goods and services was examined via the use of arndummy. From the empirical results it was observed that the rebel war contributes the risingrnprices of goods and the stifling of real economic activities, albeit insignificantly. The stifling ofrnreal economic activities arises from the massive outflow of capital and the collapse of investmentrnactivities due to insecurity. Policies which focus on reducing insecurity so as to boost domesticrninvestment and output growth were therefore suggested.rnrnWith the aid of the DF and ADF tests, this study also attempts to examine the nature ofrnthe inflation series in Sierra Leone. T7,e findings suggest that inflation follows a trend-stationaryrnprocess rather than a difference-stationary process implying that shocks, both domestic andrnexternal, have a temporary effect on inflation

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Output Growth Money Supply And Inflation In A War-torn Economy Evidence From Sierra Leone

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