Trade Among Comesa Countries A Gravity Approach

This study aimed at examining whether Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africarn(COMES!) is effective in promoting trade among its member states. The study uses gravityrnmodel to estimate the trade intensity among its members for the year 198 1 and 1999. The gravityrnmodel is applied to trade intensity indices and the estimation o f the gravity equation is carried outrnusing Tobit regression. The empirical results indicate that the standard gravity model variablesrnhave the expected effect on the trade linkage in COMESA. The main locus of the study is, on thernestimation of' COMESA, which is found to be in significant in promoting trade among members.rnA comparison of the two periods result reveals a very similar pattern before and after thernformation of COMESA. Thus, the result confirms the ineffectiveness of COMESA in enlargingrntrade among its members. Accordingly, the study suggests the requirement of joint effort of thernmember countries in coordinating. harmonizing and implementing policies, improving theirrnhuman and institutional capabilities, increasing production capacity and expanding markets byrninvolving active participation or the private sector so as to raise intra-COMESA trade.

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