Modeling The Principal Export Commodities Of Ethiopia (197071 - 200304)

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This study endeavored to model the principal export commodities of Ethiopia such as CoffeernOilseeds. Khat. Pulses. Hides and Skins, Other exports and manufactured exports using timernseries data/form 1970/ 71-2003/04. Since Ethiopia is price taker in the international commodityrnmarket, emphasis is made to the supply side of the model. In addition, as the sample size wernemployed is not sufficient to undertake the Johansen multivariate estimation technique, the shortrnrun and the long run parameters are estimated using Engle- Granger error correction method.rnThe estimated models exhibited that export sector performance is highly vulnerable torn. Environmental shacks like rain/all in both short run and long run equations. The external shocksrnsuch as terms of trade deterioration has also been scrutinized to be the fundamental factor inrndetermining the real principal commodity exports of Ethiopia in both short run and long runrnequations. Similarly the real elective exchange rate index (REER) has been important variablernin most of the equations. Real intermediate imports which is comprised of raw materials, semirnfinished goods and capital goods has been also found to be key factor for real manufacturedrnexports which is highly import intensive with 87 percent of raw material demands meet fromrnimports. on the other hand. the variable representing the influence of the road network on exportrnsupply (TRL) has the expected sign for all the commodities although it is significant only JarrnChat, Hides Skins and Oilseeds exports. Negative relationship between real exports of coffeernand real exports o/Hides and skins has been observed with the exchange rate gap disclosing thatrnwhen the gap widens export supplies of these commodities will be slumped. Errors and omission,rnfertilizer sold. domestic consumption, real agricultural production, international trade loan forrnexport are vital variables in determining real export of commodities.rnThe repercussion of these results is the importance of diversifying the export sector bothrngeographically and commodity wise. The commodity diversification should be also embarked onrnboth horizontally and vertically. The Importance real effective exchange rate calls lip also thernreal depreciation the Birr is imperative for competitiveness of all commodities that Ethiopia isrnexporting for the interactional markets.

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Modeling The Principal Export Commodities Of Ethiopia (197071 - 200304)

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