The Effects Of Sociopolitical Instability And Macroeconomic Uncertainty On Private Investment Evidence From Sub Saharan African Countries

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This study attempts to examine the effects of sociopolitical instability, and macroeconomicrnvolatility on private investment, for a panel of 26 SSA countries for the period 1986-15. Tornuncover robust results this study exploited the within group, forward orthogonal deviation (FOD)rnand system GMM estimators. Results from the three dynamic panel models estimation showsrnthat, sociopolitical instability is found to have pronounced significant positive effects on privaterninvestment compared to macroeconomic volatility and standard macroeconomic culprits.rnMoreover, macroeconomic uncertainty captured by unconditional standard deviations ofrnexchange rate turns out with deleterious effect on private investment in SSA, and significant inrnall models. However, the unconditional standard deviation of inflation rate seems insignificant inrnexplaining private investment fluctuations in the region. Corroborating the accelerator effects ofrnoutput, real GDP showed positive and significant impact on private investment in SSA, whilerncredit to the private sector, public investment, and external debt service found to haverninsignificant effects in SSA and the results are persistent across all the three models. We arguedrnthat sociopolitical stability mainly characterized by: stable government, abetment of conflictsrn(internal, external, ethnic and religious), improved socioeconomic conditions and investmentrnprofile, lesser corruption, and heightening of institutional and bureaucracy quality promotesrnprivate investment in SSA. Further, our empirical finding asserts limited production capacityrnassociated with heavy dependency on imported intermediate and capital goods signifies therndeterring effects of exchange rate volatility. And thus SSA should promote strategies on therndiversification of production activities and thereby make them less dependent to importedrninvestment goods.

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The Effects Of Sociopolitical Instability And Macroeconomic Uncertainty On Private Investment Evidence From Sub Saharan African Countries

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