Vulnerability To The Changing Climate And The Quest For Livelihood Resilience Agro-ecology Based Analysis In Wolaita Zone Southern Ethiopia

Building livelihood resilience requires reducing exposure and sensitivity while improvingrncapacitates to absorb, adapt, and transform from recurring climate shocks. The generalrnobjective of this study was to explore households’livelihood vulnerability conditions tothernchanging climate and investigate livelihood resilience from absorptive, adaptive, andrntransformative perspectives in the three agro-ecological Zones of Wolaita Zone, SouthernrnEthiopia. Being governed by the pragmatist philosophical view, the study employed a convergentrnparallel mixed research design whereby most of the study objectives were centered onrnquantitative data collected through multistage sampling techniques from 403 farm households.rnGridded time series data were also obtained from the National Meteorological Agency ofrnEthiopia for the years between 1983 and 2014. Purposively selected 11 focus group discussions,rn15 key informant interviews, and personal observations were used to complement both the surveyrnand the meteorological data. The livelihood vulnerability approach framed by thernIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tailored for the agro-ecology specificrnvulnerability analysis whereas the livelihood analysis was rooted in the three-dimensionalrnresilience framework consisting of absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacities. The studyrnwas based on climate trend analysis methods, including World Meteorological OrganizationExpert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, and Non-Parametric-Sen’s SlopernEstimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests, Standardized Rainfall Anomaly, and PrecipitationrnConcentration Index. The econometric models employed include Binary Logit, Ordinary LeastrnSquare, and Quantile Regression. The results show that the three agro-ecological Zones havernexperienced both positive and negative trends of change in temperature extremes. Warmrnextremes are increasing, whereascold extremes are decreasing, suggesting considerable changesrnin the agro-ecological zones. Similarly, a consistently positive trend was observed in the annualrnminimum temperature in all agro-ecological Zones while the annual maximum temperaturerntrend was positive in all except the midland agro-ecology. An upward trend in the annual totalrnrainfall was recorded in the midland while it was a non-significant downward trend in the otherrnagro-ecological Zones. Over 60 % of farmers perceived increasing temperature and decreasingrnrainfall across the agro-ecological zones. Farmers' climate change perceptions are significantlyrninfluenced by their access to climate and market information, agro-ecology, education,rnagricultural input, and village market distance. The livelihood vulnerability analysis suggestsrnthat lowland agro-ecology has relatively a higher exposure and sensitivity to climate shocks withrna comparatively limited adaptive capacity. On the contrary, the midland agro-ecology unveilsrnthe lowest vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and a higher adaptiverncapacity. The quantile regression shows that education, family size, food-secure months, use ofrnsoil and water conservation, and role in the community are the major determinants ofrnhousehold's level of resilience. Therefore, the study recommendsencouraging the practice ofrndrought-tolerant varieties, high yield crops, practice small-scale irrigation, and agroforestryrnthat fit the specific agro-ecology. It is also suggested to capitalize on resilience building rnixrnschemes, such as the design of viable livelihood diversification strategies, promote agriculturalrncooperatives, extensions services, inputand output markets, and reinforce the early warningrnsystem and disaster risk management to reduce further vulnerability to climate impacts andrnimprove their livelihood resilience capacities.rnKeywords: Agro-ecology, climate extremes, livelihood vulnerability, livelihood resilience,rnperception, shocks, Wolaita Zone.

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