Evaluating The Vulnerability Context Of Livelihoods And Responses In A Changing Climate Condition Insights For Sustainable Livelihood In Different Agro-ecologies Of Gurage Zone

Climate variability and change profoundly affect rural livelihood systems in Ethiopia, particularlyrnthose built around climate-sensitive sectors. Generally, the objective of this study was to evaluaternthe vulnerability context of livelihoods in a changing climate condition and to examine farmers'rnresponses for sustainable livelihood to support effective ex-ante decision-making in different agroecologies of Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The dissertation used a mixed research design tornaddress the objectives. Representative 357 farm households were selected using a multistagernsampling technique and data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire.rnComplementarily, 2 focus group discussions and 12 key informant interviews for each agroecologies were carried-out. Agro-ecological variation of climate indices for extreme precipitationrnand temperature was analyzed for the time 1986–2016. The study used different data analysisrnmethods, including the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index–rnIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI–IPCC) to analyze livelihood vulnerability; therntrend and magnitude of changes in precipitation and temperature extreme were examined by thernMann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively; adaptation difference betweenrnagro-ecologies was measured by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and descriptivernstatistics; the Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) used to analyze determinants of the choice ofrnadaptation strategies among farm households. The results indicate that there had been consistentrnwarming trends in the study agro-ecologies. While inconsistent changes in precipitation extremesrnwith insignificance trends were observed. The duration of extreme precipitation trends showedrninconsistency among the studied agro-ecologies. The livelihood vulnerability analysis revealedrnthat the lowland agro-ecological zone was more vulnerable to a changing climate condition,rnalthough there was a difference in components relative value in the three agro-ecological settings.rnIncreasing temperature and declining precipitation are perceived by the majority of thernrespondents. Similarly, sampled farmers reported that the frequency of extreme events likerndrought, flood, frost, and storm had increased. In response to the adverse effects of climaternvariability and change, farmers employed adaptation strategies. But, a significant agro-ecologicalrnvariation in farm management practices was found. The result from the multinomial logit modelrnshowed that different factors determine the adoption of adaptation measures. The result revealedrnthat the adoption of crop management related strategy to a changing climate is significantly andrnpositively affected by education level, farming experience, and extension advice. A positive andrnsignificant influence of sex, household size, credit service, access to market, and lowland agroecology was observed on the adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Context-specificrninterventions in response to a changing climate condition are recommended. Due to the availabilityrnof relatively large farm-land and less labor out-migration, crop management measures likerndrought-resistant and improved varies and adoption of soil and water conservation measures arernrecommended in lowland agro-ecological zone to increase the productivity of agriculturalrnactivities and thereby to sustain the livelihood of farmers. While, diversification of livelihood andrnplantation of Enset is recommended in both midland and highland agro-ecological zones sincernthere is a land shortage, migration of youths, and population density. Similarly, the resultsrnacknowledge the role of institutional support in terms of education, climate information, credit,rnextension services, and market access to increase farmers’ readiness to implement adaptationrnstrategies in response to the impacts of climate-related disasters, to improve livelihood, and supportrndisaster risk reduction efforts.

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