National Energy Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Of Ethiopia And Its Mitigation Analysis

In this paper, projection of energy demand and GHGs emission were done for the next thirty years, taking thern2000 Ethiopian energy system as a base year. This has been determined with the help of the Long RangernEnergy Alternative Planning system (LEAP). LEAP forecasts energy consumption and GHG emissions byrnsector and national total by summing up sectoral energy consumption and GHG emissions. All availablernenergy consumption activities and socio-economic data have been collected and input in to the model torndevelop scenarios. Scenarios are self-consistent story-lines of future energy system and will show how energyrnmight evolve over time in a particular socio-economic setting and under a particular set of policy conditions.rnInitially, a reference scenario was created based on the current energy situation. This uses the base yearrnsituation and the expected future changes based on the likely plans and growth trajectories. It is “Business-asusual”rnscenario with implementation of anticipated and likely to be carried out projects and policies. Thenrnmitigation scenario that simulates new policy measure was developed to meet the energy demand and reducernGHGs emission. The household sector energy demand was assumed to be driven by populationrngrowth. The energy demand for industry and commercial was assumed to be driven by their GDPrnwhile in the agriculture is by their tons of out put. On the other hand, energy demand for therntransportation sector was assumed to be driven by respective growth in passenger-km and ton-km forrnpassengers and freight sub-sector.rnThe computation showed that energy demand and its related GHGs emission would increase in the next thirtyrnyears and would be 2.5 and 3.3 times their base year values, respectively. The computation showed that thernhousehold and the transport sector take the largest GHGs emission contribution. The selected interventionrnmeasures were therefore mostly focused on those two major sectors. Under those measures, the energyrndemand could be reduced by 3.7%, 5.5%, and 8% while the GHGs emission reduced by 5.6%, 7.6% andrn10.9% in 2010, 2020 and 2030, respectively. On the other hand measures in the transformation analysis,rnefficient charcoal production would reduce the input wood demand by 36% while transmission andrndistribution loss reduction would reduce electricity lose by 9% in 2030. Furthermore, by the efficient charcoalrnproduction the GHGs emissions could be reduced 13%, 15.3% and 17.7% in 2010, 2020 and 2030,rnrespectively. Finally, recommendations to implement those mitigation measures are given for governmentalrnand non governmental organization.rnKey words/ Phrases. Gas Emissions, Energy demand, Mitigation

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