Impact Of Climate Change On Irrigation Case Study On Wonji Shoa Sugar Plantation Estate

Irrigation is significant in increasing agriculture production and productivity forrnsustainability of country's economy. Impacts on existing activities for irrigation designrnand management system is obvious due to rapid change of climate system which raisedrnthe concern of floods and droughts. This paper future focus the impacts in irrigationrnsystem on Wonji Shoa Suger Plantation Estate. The assessment is founded on downscaledrnoutputs of Cordex Africa climate data portal and a sugarcane growth model. A range ofrnimpacts on water resource systems results from change of local hydrologic condition arernbecause of climate changes. Every aspect of human well-being will be hurt by suchrnchanges. The thesis objective is to evaluate the influence of changing climate on the croprnyield and irrigation requirement for Wonji Shoa Sugarcane Plantation Estate. For futurernclimate data, it used the results of projections of cordex regional climate model (RCM)rnwith bias correction for medium concentration representative path way 4.5RCP and highrnconcentrative representative path way 8.5RCP scenario. The down-scaled data were thenrnused as input to the AQUACROP model to simulate the corresponding future yield,rnirrigation requirement and evapotranspiration. The analysis done for the 2020s (2010–rn2039), the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099), and it compared them withrnthe reference period (1990–2016) using measured and modeled data. The time seriesrngenerated by downscaled RCM indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum andrnminimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for bothrn4.5rcp and 8.5rcp scenarios for all three bench mark periods. The yield and irrigationrnrequirement impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitationrntime series as input to the Aquacrop model suggested for both 4.5rcp and 8.5rcprnscenarios. The model output shows that there is an annual increase in yield. For 8.5 rcprnscenarios, the incensement is 6.2%, 7.84, 11.03% and 14.48% in 2020s, 2040s, 2060srnand 2080s respectively. For 4.5 rcp scenarios the increment is much lower compared torn8.5rcp scenarios. But there is steel increasing in yield for 4.5rcp. The change is 0.3%,rn1.8%, 7.02%,and 4.82% for the period of 2020s, 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s respectively.rnThe evapotranspiration shows an increases in 20.34%, 20.12%, 23.59% and 24.36% forrn8.5 rcp in the period of 2020s, 2040s, 2060s, 2080s respectively. For 4.5rcp scenario the change is in about 8.4%, 11.65%, 13.22%, and 15.85% for the period of 2020s, 2040s,rn2060s, and 2080s respectively. In irrigation requirement, for 4.5 rcp scenarios there is nornchange in four benchmark periods and in decreases after 2060s for 8.5 rcp scenario in .816% andrn-9.75%.

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