Development Of Water Allocation For Genale Dawa River Basin Under Climate Change And Future Development Scenarios

Population growth, urbanization, and industrialization are occurring at an ever-increasing phase.rnThese processes result in an increased demand for water in all sectors. Water is not only influencedrnby human activities, but also by natural factors, such as climate change. It is in the Genale DawarnBasin that the higher percentage of people under the poverty line in the country (NAPA 7).Thernregion is known with subsistence farming and pastoral livelihood facing frequent drought andrnrainfall declining abruptly and Climate change is expected to worsen the problem of rainfallrnvariability, and associated drought and flood disasters. The objective of this thesis is to model thernwater resources system to develop a water allocation system for the Genale Dawa river basin underrnclimate change and future development scenarios using a computer-based modeling tool WaterrnEvaluation and Planning System Model (WEAP). Records of hydrology, meteorology, andrnirrigation water supply for the study area are statistically tested and arranged as an input file sourcernto suit the model. Meteorological and CORDEX Africa RCM 8.5 climatic data were correctedrnwith multi-regression and distribution mapping (DM) method respectively and the two data werernalso correlated with each other. The model calibration, validation, and its statistical measure werernseen and therefore the result shows that it's good and the model can simulate the current and futurernscenarios. The results of this analysis revealed the study found No quantity of unmet demand inrnthe in reference Scenario from the years 1990 to 2018 for all cumulative demands. Similarly in therncoming future Development scenario I Short term analysis period (2019–2030) and long termrnanalysis period (2031–2050) among the total water requirement the unmet Demand for domesticrnand livestock water demand in each period became 13.72% and 15.72% of the total Water demandrn. Although for the Climate change scenario II for constant total cumulative water demand ofrn759.6Mmrn3rn in Short term and long term period 10.97% and 9.48% of the total demand is Unmet inrnthe analysis respectively. And For Scenario III (combination scenario) both the future developmentrnand climate change effect on sectional demand are considered and analyzed. Based on thernsimulation results from the total demand in short term period (2019 – 2030) and long term periodrn(2031- 2050) the total unmet demand is found to be 10.97% and 12.73% of the total demand isrnUnmet respectively.

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