Abay Basin Water Allocation Modelling Using Hec Ressim

Despite Ethiopia possesses abundant water resources potential, second only tornCongo in all of Africa, the country is at critical cross roads with large and increasingrnpopulation, a depressed national economy, insufficient agricultural production andrnlow no of developed energy sources. 83% of Ethiopians lack access to electricity; onlyrn5 percent of irrigable land and 3% of the hydropower potential in the Blue Nile basinrnhas been developed so far. Nowadays persisting drought and increasing competitionrnfor water have left Ethiopia with no more chance other than seeking solutions andrnassure sustainability of the resource.rnEven though Ethiopian portion of Blue Nile, Abay possesses a great potential ofrnirrigation and hydropower developments, the financial and political constraints havernlong hindered the country’s development. This study aims at analyzing the effects ofrnimplementing the potential irrigation and hydropower projects that arerncontemplated in the country.rnReservoir system simulation (Hec-ResSim) software has been used to study the outrnputs of executing different developments in the basin. This has been done by settingrnup the model and simulating for four scenarios including the base scenario referringrnto the current situation in the basin. After a curious filtering of all projects mentionedrnin the basin’s master plan and other project specific reports, 315,431ha (38.7% ofrntotal 815,581ha potential) of irrigation and 7,026Mw (89.6% of total 7845Mwrnpotential) of hydropower potential; overall comprising 23 dams having a combinedrnmaximum storage capacity of 170.15Bm3 have been preferred to be analyzed andrnassessed using the model. After categorizing these projects under four scenarios; thernsimulation has been done based on 33 years (1960-1992) of monthly hydrologic flowrnseries.rnvirnThis study under has indicated that If Ethiopia is to develop 315,431ha and 7,029Mw,rnthe resulting decline in the cross border flow will be only 3,382.93Mm3 which is onlyrn7.29% of the currently simulated (under current condition scenario,scenario-1) Abayrndischarge to Sudan which is 46,396.99 Mm3. Under this condition both Ethiopia andrnSudan benefit from regulation of Abay by Ethiopian dams, in that it results inrnincreasing of low flows, giving the whole system uniformity of balance, decreasingrnwater escaping during flood seasons.rnAs concluded from this study regulation works upstream in Ethiopia have resulted inrna uniform monthly average flow of 3,584.51Mm3 throughout the year to Sudan.rnCurrently as the base case simulation indicated, Sudan receives monthly average lowrnflow of 1,233.54Mm3 through November to June which then turns to be increasing;rnAugust being flood month when 13,456.27Mm3 has been observed.rnIn addition if Ethiopia is to develop 7,029Mw including hydropower projects on therntributaries, then some 38,385.81Gwh/annum of electricity will be produced. Evenrnthough Tana-Beles project imposes a big deal of inflow and power out put decline onrnthe main stream hydropower plants, this power decrease was exceeded by thernpower generated at Tana-Beles power plant. Prior to Tana-Beles project Powerrnoutput from main stream plants has been 34,284.23 Gwh/annum then increased torn34,736.14 Gwh/annum despite power decrease at Karadobi, Mabil, Mandaya andrnBorder.

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