Rainfall Variation And Its Effect On Crop Production In Ethiopia

Agricultural production in Ethiopia is predominantly rainfed. Variation of rainfall in space andrntime affects the agricultural production system in the country. This needs accurate measurementrnof rainfall and close study of rainfall variation. Therefore, the objective of this thesis work is tornstudy rainfall variability and its impact on crop production in Ethiopia.rnFor such type of study and other study in the country, accurate rainfall measurement over widernspatial area extent is required. NOAA provides satellite rainfall estimate in Africa since 1995.rnThe comparison of monthly satellite estimate obtained by CPC (Climate Prediction Center)rntechnique with 37 numbers of rain gauges data show significant correlation (R = 0.77) butrngenerally underestimation over the period of 1996-2002. And the root mean squared errorrn(RMSE) is 68mm in average. With better calibration of the CPC method, better estimationrnwould be obtained.rnRainfall variation called trend has been assessed for total annual, Kiremt (June-September) andrnBelg (February-May) rainfall using 10 selected stations over the period of 1973-2002 inrnEthiopia. Trend-free Pre-whitening Mann-Kendall statistical test at the stations show that Belgrnrainfall totals don’t show significant trend while Kiremt rainfall totals on Gore (-7.75mm/year)rnand Jijiga (-5.87mm/year), Sep-Nov total rainfall on N.Borena (-3.25mm/year) and annualrnrainfall totals on Gore (-12.2mm/year) and N.Borena (-11.11mm/year) show significantrndecreasing trend during the period. It is recommended to extend the study on more number ofrnstations to conclude at regional level.rnFinally, in the thesis, total annual, Kiremt and Belg areal rainfall are regressed with main cerealrnproduction of Teff, Barely, Wheat and Maize on selected study areas over the period of 1994-rn2001. The result shows no significant correlation between total annual, Kiremt and Belgrnrainfall, and production of those cereals. This analysis, however, includes small number ofrnsample data and thus doesn’t include drought years occurred in the country. In addition, in thernanalysis, other agronomic factors are ignored. Therefore, large number of sample data andrnconsideration of other factors should be used in future studies.

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