Climate Dependent Malaria Disease Transmission Model And Its Analysis

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The impact of climate change on human health, particularly through the potential increasernin vector- and water-borne diseases, has received increasing attention in recentrnyears. Environmental variables are known to a_ect signi_cantly the population dynamicsrnand abundance of insects major catalysts of vector-borne diseases, but the exactrnextent and consequences of this sensitivity are not yet well-established. Malaria infectionrncontinues to be a major problem in many parts of the world including Africa. Wernfocus here on mathematical model that describes the impact of climate variation onrnthe malaria dynamics. To study this relation, a non-autonomous deterministic modelrnis designed by incorporating the e_ect of both temperature and rainfall to the dispersionrnand mortality rate of adult mosquitoes and this is used to assess the impact ofrnthe variability in temperature and rainfall on the transmission dynamics of malaria inrna population. In the model, the periodic variation of seasonal variables as well as thernnon-periodic variation due to the long term climate variation has been incorporated andrnanalysed. In both cases, it has been shown that the disease-free solution of the modelrnis globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction ratio is less than unityrnin the periodic system and when the threshold function is less than unity in the nonperiodicrnsystem. The disease is uniformly persistent when the basic reproduction ratiornis greater than unity in the periodic system and when the threshold function is greaterrnthan unity with some additional conditions in the non-periodic system. The model hasrnbeen validated using epidemiological data collected from western region of Ethiopia, byrnconsidering the trends for monthly number of microscopically con_rmed cases of malariarnduring the years 2000-2012 and the climate variation in the region. Then time dependentrnoptimal control theory in the non periodic environment is applied to investigaternoptimal strategies for controlling the spread of malaria disease using insecticide treatedrnbed nets, spray of mosquito insecticide and treatment as the system time dependentrncontrol variables. The possible impact of using combinations of two controls or one atrna time on the spread of the disease is also examined.

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Climate Dependent Malaria Disease Transmission Model And Its Analysis

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