Demographic Impact Of Hivaids In Addis Ababa

A mathematical modeling was done to determine the demographic impact ofHIY/AIDSrnepidemic in Addis Ababa.rnIt was found that:- a) the adult HIY prevalence will reach a plateau level of [0.78% in thernyear 2001 and then declines to 10.28% in the year 2004. b) AIDS will slow the decline inrninfant mortality rate and under 5 mortality rates and will increase crude death rate andrnlowers the life expectancy at birth. c) AIDS will reduce the size ofthe Addis Ababarnpopulation by about 160,000 people in the year 2004, but will not stop or make its growthrnnegative. d) AIDS will also reduce fertility but, e) it will not worsen the traditionalrndependency ratio (i.e., the population under age 15 and over age 64, as a proportion of thernpopulation of age 15-64). Similar trends were reported by studies conducted in other subSaharanrnAfrican countries.rnBased on the above findings, preventive measures such as STD control, condomrnpromotion, IEC and blood screening, approaching the problem multisectorally,rnincorporating the HIY/ AIDS epidemic in the demographic projection, and establishingrnHIY/AIDS data base were recommended.

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