Statistical Analysis Of Spatial Distribution Of Tuberculosis In North Shoa Zone Ethiopia

Tuberculosis (TB) is the major cause of health problems in Ethiopia, accounting for more thanrnthousands of cases and deaths occurring annually. The risks of morbidity and mortalityrnassociated with TB are characterized by spatial variations across the country. For instance,rnOromia is a region with the largest number of TB cases in Ethiopia (36.80%) and the share ofrnNorth Shoa Zone is really quite big (FMOH, 2008).rnThis study examines the spatial patterns of TB in North Shoa Zone and identifies those variablesrnthat determine TB clustering. We examine the global and local patterns of TB distribution byrnusing individual morbidity data collected from North Shoa Health Bureau in 2008. GlobalrnMoran’s I, Geary’s C and Moran scatter plot are used in determining distribution of TB. Thesernwere used in identifying areas of hot spot for giving strong care in monitoring and to reduce TBrndistribution.rnThe values for Global Moran’s I shows that the presence of significant TB clustering in NorthrnShoa Zone. And in six woredas significant TB clustering of similar values were observed byrnusing cluster map while only in one woreda a significant TB clustering of dissimilar values wasrnobserved. Furthermore, Poisson and negative binomial regression analysis are used in this study.rnThe findings of these models have shown that all explanatory variables (population density,rnnumber of health centers and prevalence of HIV cases) are significantly associated with TB casernloading.rnThere is evidence of significant TB clustering in North Shoa Zone. Significant hot spots and coldrnspots of TB clusters were identified in six woredas. Poisson and negative binomial regressionrnanalysis show a decrease in TB case loading with increasing number of health centers.rnAdditionally, it is population density that is highly associated with TB case loading

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