Determinants Of Ethiopian Export On Five Selected Commodities A Time Series Analysis

The study investigates the export performance of the five selected commodities of Ethiopia namely: coffee, oil seeds, chat, meat and meat products and fruits and vegetables and their determinants during the period 2003/2004 - 2017/18 using a secondary data extracted from National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority (ERCA) and Central Statistics Agency (CSA). To analyze the relationship between the export commodities and their determinants, gross domestic products (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and trade openness (TOP) were used, an Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model have been used. The model helps to investigate the long run and short run relationship between selected commodities and their determinants. The result from econometric analysis revealed that the GDP is the only variable significantly and positively affects the export of the selected commodities. While TOP positively and significantly affects the export of coffee and chat, REER significantly affects the export of fruit and vegetables however, negatively. Since all the export commodities were positively impacted by GDP, increasing quality and quantity of the product of the commodities would bring a vital outcome for increasing the performance of the export of the commodities, which can be regarded as the key finding for the research.

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