Do Asymmetric J-curve Phenomenon Evident For Ethiopia An Application Of Heterogeneous Panel Ardl Model To Its Major Trading Partners

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Investigating the existence of the J-curve phenomenon of the trade balance in response to devaluation and examining its asymmetric relationships for panel data analysis of 28 major Ethiopia’s trading partner were objective of this study. The data coverage is from 1992 to 2020 and is estimated using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach which is determined by Hausman (1978) test, in both the linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. This study differs from prior studies by its model specification, including nonlinearities estimation technique, utilizing a modified version of the conventional trade balance model (standard bilateral trade plus gravity model approach), which is more suited for bilateral trade analysis. Under linear panel ARDL analysis seven bilateral trade connections have J-curve effects, based on the assumption of symmetric exchange rate effects. The J-curve effects are real in 20 situations when the estimate is performed assuming asymmetric effects. Long-run and short-run asymmetries are also verified, and it is demonstrated that simultaneous bilateral real exchange rate depreciation improves the long-run trade balance. Since the agricultural export compositions remained relatively constant, and total exports continued to worsen in 1984/85, declining by 55.95 percent in 1991/92 from prior decades. Following the overthrow of the military dictatorship and the EPRDF's takeover of the government and takes different policy measures (like currency devaluation) the quantities of oilseeds, pulses, meat products, fruits and vegetables, live animals, chat, and gold, on the other hand, have changed dramatically and indicate a substantial improvement, composed 11.39%, 5.27%, 1.55%, 1.44%, 2.15%, 9.49% and 9.01% respectively of overall export value during 1991/92-2019/20. Thus both the descriptive and empirical analysis of the study confirms existence of J curve phenomenon in the case of Ethiopia with major trading partners. Imply that a devaluation strategy can be utilized to improve Ethiopia's export competitiveness in the long run.

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Do Asymmetric J-curve Phenomenon Evident For Ethiopia An Application Of Heterogeneous Panel Ardl Model To Its Major Trading Partners

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