Analysing The Relationship Of Climate Change And Vegetation Cover Change Over The Last Three Decades In Case Of Chilimo Forest West Shewa Ethiopia

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This study was conducted to investigate the relationship of climate change (described in terms of rainfall and temperature) with vegetation cover in Chilimo Forest, over the last three decades from 1990 to 2020. Multi-temporal Landsat imageries of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, Climate Hazard group InfraRed Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS) and Climate Hazard group InfraRed Rainfall with Stations (CHIRPS) were used for this study. Field data and google earth were used to verify remote sensing data. In order to prepare LULC map of the study area support vector machine classification was applied. Accordingly, Pearson correlation coefficient was computed to analyses and quantify the relationship of rainfall and temperature with forest cover, shrubland, grassland and wetland. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to analysis non-parametric trend analysis for rainfall of 1990 to 2020 and temperature of 1990 to 2016. The result examined that there was 6599.16ha (29.43%), 6059.90ha (27.03), 6185.25ha (27.59%) and 5671.37ha (25.29%) of forestland, 1333.98ha (5.95%), 1693.35ha (7.55%), 1028.52ha (4.59%) and 1189.35ha (5.3) of shrubland, 953.31ha (4.25%), 850.89ha (3.79%), 736.23ha (3.28%) and 527.58ha (2.35%) of grassland and 66.78ha (0.3%), 63.09ha (0.28%), 41.22ha (0.18%), and 20.16ha (0.09%) of wetland coverage in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively. Additionally, the result exhibited that natural high forest, shrubland, grassland, wetland and bare land were declined by 2.7%, 0.64%, 1.9%, 0.2%, and 2.21% over the study area from 1990 to 2020. However, the result showed crop land was increased by value of 3.77%, 5.38%, and 1.59% consequently over the study period. Moreover, trend analysis result exhibited that mean, minimum, and maximum dry season and wet season mean and minimum temperature was increased in the study area. The Sen’s slope shows mean, minimum and maximum dry season temperature trend analysis result revealed increasing trend with 0.028 oC yr.-1, 0.036 oC yr.-1 and 0.031 oC yr.-1 respectively while wet season maximum temperature analysis result indicated decreasing trend by 0.016 oC yr.-1 from 1990 to 2016. In contrast, trend analysis result of mean, minimum and maximum dry season rainfall shown decreasing trend with factor of 2.075, 0.067 and 3.52 while annual rainfall trend analysis result examined decreasing and increasing trend from 1990 to 2020. Mann-Kendall trend test analysis for wet and dry season temperature and annual rainfall result was shown increasing trend. Whereas, dry season rainfall Mann-Kendall trend test analysis result shows increasing decreasing trend. Hence, coefficient of determination (R2) for forest cover, shrubland, grassland and wetland with annual and dry season rainfall result exhibited that R2 = 0 .61, R2 = 0 .57, R2 = 0 .95, R2 = 0 .62 and R2 = 0 .98, R2 = 0 .01, R2 = 0 .73, R2 = 0 .28, respectively. Besides, the result examines LULC of the study area was gradually changing for the last three decades since 1990. From the findings of the result there was variability of annual and dry season rainfall as well as wet and dry season temperature over the study area. Based on this finding’s vegetation cover were influenced by the effect of rainfall and temperature change which examined in western, north-eastern and central part of the study area. The consequence of examined land-cover change as well as variability of rainfall and temperature cause land degradation, deforestation and loss of forest resource. Indeed, implementing local level land-use planning and community based natural resource management implementation system is recommended to monitor, conserve and rehabilitate vegetation cover.

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Analysing The Relationship Of Climate Change And Vegetation Cover Change Over The Last Three Decades In Case Of Chilimo Forest West Shewa Ethiopia

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