Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism On Macroeconomic Objectives A Case Of Selected East African Countries (pooled Mean Group Estimation)
This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism onrnmacroeconomic objectives in cases of selected East African Countries using a Dynamic PanelrnARDL model with Pooled Mean Group estimation method. It specifically examines the dynamicrnresponses of exchange rate, real interest rate, domestic credit and broad money supply onrneconomic growth rate, consumer price index and balance of payment by employing annual datarnfrom 1992 to 2017. To do so, three models (economic growth rate, consumer price index andrnbalance of payment) and different tests (i.e. descriptive analysis, panel unit root test, Pedroni cornintegration test and pooled mean group estimation) were used. The empirical evidence forrneconomic growth rate model suggests that exchange rate, real interest rate and broad moneyrnsupply have a positive and significant long-run impact for economic growth rate, while domesticrncredit has a negative and significant impact for economic growth rate in both short-run and longrnrun. Exchange rate and broad money supply have no significant impact for economic growth inrnthe short run but real interest rate has positive and significant impact in the short run. Similarly,rnempirical result for consumer price index model shows that exchange rate and real interest raternhave a significant and negative long-run impact for consumer price index whereas domesticrncredit and broad money supply have a significant and positive long-run impact for consumerrnprice index. The short-run analysis suggests that real interest rate, domestic credit and broadrnmoney supply have a negative short-run impact for consumer price index while exchange raternhas a positive and insignificant short-run impact. For balance of payment model, exchange raternand domestic credit have positive insignificant short run and significant long-run impact forrnbalance of payment. However, real interest rate and broad money supply have negative short runrnand long-run impact for the balance of payment with insignificant impact of real interest raternboth in short run and long run. Therefore, real interest rate and broad money supply have nornsignificant impact for balance of payment in selected east African countries. The monetaryrnauthorities and policy makers should know the relationship between monetary policyrntransmission mechanisms and macroeconomic objectives with their central bank monetaryrnpolicy.