Developing A Forecasting Model For Cereal Coffee Pulses And Oil Seeds Box-jenkins Approach

This study tries to identify the macro forecasting gap created between Ethiopian government andrnSome international organizations like IMF. The former uses informal methods (un ojficialized)rnand the later uses model based forecasting methods growth oriented financial programing modelrnto predict rate of growth The other(major) concern of the study was in developing a forecastingrnmodel for cereal, coffee, pulses and oilseeds using Box-Jenkins (univariate ARJMA)rnmethodology. Following the four procedures of identification, estimation, diagnostic checkingrnand forecasting, we get ARIMA (2,1 , 2), ARIMA(2, 1,4), ARIMA(O,1,4) and ARIMA(O, 1,4) as therndata congruent forecasting models for cereal, coffee, pulses and oiLseeds respectively.

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