A Simulation Analysis Of The Impact Of Phasing - Out Of Export Subsidies By The Oecd On Sub - Saharan Exports The Case Of Animal And Animal Products

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This study is set out to simulate the impact of phasing out of export subsidies by the GECD on the exportsrnof animal and animal products in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global trade of animal and animal productsrnhas been increasing Significantly over the past 20 years although the share of SSA has been low. Thernnumber of SSA countres that are net importers of animal and animal products has increase over thernyears owing to a large increase in imports of animal and animal products among themselves and with thernrest of the world. The simulation analysis in the paper is done using two models. The first model isrnATPSM and is developed by FAG and UNCTAD for the purpose of simulating tradernpolicies. 1t is a partial equilibrium static model. The first scenario to be simulated is 36% reduction inrnmarket access, 21% reduction in domestic support and a 100% reduction in export competition. Thernresults reveal that this would result in a 7% increase in exports of animal and animal products by SSArncountries. For the second scenario only the phasing out of expo'-t subsidies by 100% was wl1en and thisrnresulted in a 2% increase in the exports of animal and animal products by SSA. The second model is anrnexport model estimating using a panel data from 42 SSA countries and 21 years. This model tal1esrnproduction capacity, domestic price index, price of exports, export price of trading partners and income ofrntrading partners as explanatory variables to determine exports. Although the theoretical frameworkrndefines a simultaneous estimation, test for endogeniety indicated that the model should be estimated withrnGLS. After estimating with a panel corrected standard errors the results of the model showed that thernonly variables affecting the value of exports are real GOP (substituting production capacity) and unitrnvalue of exports (substituting for price of exports). Given the result from the two models it can be seenrnthat the changes in trade policies by GECD countries doesn't significantly c1wnge tile exports of the SSArncountries. This calls for-more inward 100l1ing policies where it becomes imporetant to enhance productionrncapacity and improve institutions and infrasinucture.

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A Simulation Analysis Of The Impact Of Phasing - Out Of Export Subsidies By The Oecd On Sub - Saharan Exports The Case Of Animal And Animal Products

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