Coupling Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations And Observed Hydroclimatic Variables To Characterize Impacts Of Climate Change And Variability

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research attempts to identify climate induced changes and spatio-temporal tendencies in the governing hydroclimatic variables over the complex topography of Ethiopia in general and the Blue Nile basin in focus; using dynamically downscaled high-resolution climate simulations. The statistical metrices used for performance evaluation of the ERA-Interim forced hindcast simulations revealed that the WRF climate model can replicate ground based daily observations with biases as low as 0.65 mm/day over stations having consistent and complete daily records. Meanwhile it was evident that daily precipitation simulations show best performance at the 12-km grid resolution compared to the 36 and 4-km horizontal grids. Analysis of the scenario based baseline (2011-2020) and projected (2061-2070) simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate that mean monthly precipitations show increasing tendencies in September, October, and December, while decreasing monthly precipitation tendencies are projected for March, May, and June across wider portions of Ethiopia under the intermediate stabilization scenario. Seasonally, RCP4.5 projections of the main rainy (JJAS) season are expected to favour the southeaster and western high lands while, southwestern, the rift valley and adjoining ridges of central high land, and northern parts of Ethiopia are predicted to receive reduced precipitation in the season. Temperature projections of the stabilization and high emission scenarios show increasing tendencies of up to 1.75℃ and 4.00 ℃ respectively across different parts of the country. Under the intermidate stabilization scenario, mean monthly surface runoff over the Blue Nile basin tends to increase in February, June, August, October, and November, while tending to decline in April, July, and September compared to the base period (2011-2020). RCP8.5 projections of the hydroclimatic fields are showing increasing tendencies in February and July while projections for March, April, May, and October are showing reduced monthly runoff over the basin compared to the base period. Eventually, we presume that the projected tendencies in the hydroclimatic fields over Ethiopia and the Blue Nile basin in particular are relevant for water resource management and agricultural practices based on the months projected to receive ample/deficient precipitation relative to the base period. Moreover, the highly erratic precipitation and runoff projections predicted under RCP8.5 are signalling the need for comparative and divers coping mechanisms in the case of the worst scenario. Thus, the declining precipitation and runoff tendencies projected for the specific months necessitate for strategies that insure uninterrupted and efficient water resources utilization taking into account the growing demand for agricultural productivity and energy intensity.rnKey words: Dynamical downscaling , WRF, Climate Projection, RCP4.5/8.5, Ethiopia, Blue Nile basin, Surface water balance.

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Coupling Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations And Observed Hydroclimatic Variables To Characterize Impacts Of Climate Change And Variability

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