Climate Change And Optimal Watershed Management Scenarios In The Jemma Sub-basin Of Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia

This dissertation develops climate scenarios, climate impact scenarios and prioritize watershedrnmanagement alternatives which can provide optimal benefits of adaptation under different climaternscenarios. First, it characterizes the historical (baseline) climate that was a frontier for future climaternscenarios. The baseline climate (1981-2014) unfolds an increase in the annual and main rainy seasonrn(June-September) rainfall and annual maximum temperature (TMAX) and minimum temperaturern(TMIN). Different rainfall and temperature extreme indices corroborate a steady increase of rainfall andrntemperature extreme events in the baseline climate. To develop future climate scenarios, first it wasrnessential to identify Regional Climate Models (RCMs) which can simulate the historical climate of thernstudy area. Accordingly, this study has identified that Global Climate Models (GCMs) dynamicallyrndownscaled through CCLM4 and REMO modeling schemes were better in simulating the historicalrn(1981-2005) mean rainfall and the distribution of rainfall events. However, the RCM simulationsrnoverestimated and underestimated rainfall in high elevation (>2800m.a.s.l) and lower elevationrn(

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