Adopting Freight Demand Forecasting Model For Addis Ababa-djibouti Railway

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Freight transportation is an essential component of any economic activity which makes arncontinuous change as a result of growth but many economic activities depend on traffic congestionrnand truck travel time along the origins and destinations which makes series problem mainly forrnland locked countries like Ethiopia. This is because government and organization pay undesiredrntax for the stay of goods at the port. In order to solve this problem different countries use differentrnforecasting models which are designed to predict the future need of the country.rnThis thesis work identifies major freight forecasting projection models, discusses those models,rnchooses the better model based on the merits and demerits of each model and forecasts with onernof the classic freight forecasting model which is called four-stage aggregate model (hybrid withrnits own parameters) to show how it works in the context of Ethiopia by taking traffic congestionrnas a main problem.rnAs part of this work trip generated using growth factor and linear regression and mode choicernalong the path has been done by incorporating the truck traffic count, commodity tonnage sharernand an expense given to each item. This hybrid four-stage aggregate model which begins with triprngeneration step and gives a result of 3,351,406 trips when working with Annual Growth Factorrn(AGF) and 57,974 trips with linear regression method. And a comparison between this a modelrnand a model forecasted by ERC has been compared and found ERC model which generatesrn119,419 trips nearly comparable with linear regression method even though the parameters usedrnhere are different. From the total number of trips generated trains took 79 percent mode share andrntruck took remaining modal share. The distribution and an assignment step is not done because,rnthe demand investigating here focuses only origin and destination.rnFinally the thesis find out forecasting with four-stage aggregate model(Hybrid model) which usesrntraffic counts, commodity tonnage share and an expense growth rate given for each items as inputrnparameter is better model in order to generate number of trips along the line. This is because importrnand export tonnage rates can easily affected by the influence of economy, industrial locationrnpatterns, globalization of business, fuel prices,cumulatively can affect the traffic congestion

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Adopting Freight Demand Forecasting Model For Addis Ababa-djibouti Railway

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