Effect Of Bus Rapid Transit System On A Modal Shift To Bus The Case Of Winget Area Addis Ababa

Well-planned transportation system plays an important role in the development of the country.rnHowever, continuous increase in traffic congestion is resulted in longer travel times, increasedrnaccidents, more fuel consumption, and air pollution. Winget to Autobistera corridor is the mostrncongested area in the city due to its proximity to shopping center and national transportation outlet.rnIntegrating different transit priority measures Bus Rapid Transit transport system (BRT) is going tornbe applied in Addis Ababa. Practically, the designs of public transport systems in Addis Ababa arernnot based on the modal choice analysis of the target population. This research aims at estimation ofrnthe effect of BRT system on modal shift to bus, following Winget to Autobistera corridor, for thernspecific trip purposes. rnPrimary data was generated from the household survey through structured survey questionnaire.rnThe secondary data was obtained from the concerning authorities of the Addis Ababa CityrnAdministration. Discrete choice model was used to predict and analyze travelers‟ mode choice forrnthe specific trip purposes. The sample of 264 and 212 questionnaires were collected for work andrneducation trip purposes respectively, in which 3/4th of the data were used for calibration and 1/4thrnfor validation of the developed models. Systematic sampling technique was applied in this study.rnConditional logistic regression model, special type of multinomial logit model, was used tornanalyze data and predict trip makers‟ modal shift applying statistical data processing softwarernSPSS 21 and Microsoft excel tools. rnThe descriptive analysis indicates that 82.61%, 88.33%, 84.17% and 76.36% of travelers arerninterested to divert their choice to BRT for HBW, HBO, NHBW and HBE trips respectively.rnEstimation result proved time and cost related variables in addition to age-taxi interaction, incomernlevel-ride share interaction, marital status-taxi interaction, school type-lada interaction arernstatistically significant factors in mode choice. The developed models are validated with arnpredicting capacity of 88.37%, 90.56 %, 74% and 83.72 % of the preference of trip makers ofrnHBE, HBO, NHBW and HBE trips, respectively. Applying developed models different remedialrnactions, scenarios, were determined to increase desirability of the bus. Stated preference modelrnshows choice towards BRT bus decrease with the increase in travel cost, in vehicle travel time andrnwaiting time. Moreover, household survey investigate traveler‟s concern towards BRT includingrnsexual harassment, traffic accident and congestion, project delay and long bus waiting queue.

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