Statistical Analysis Of Rainfall Pattern In Dire Dawa Eastern Ethiopia

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This paper investigated the rainfall pattern of Dire Dawa, Eastern Ethiopia. DescriptivernStatistics, spectrum analysis, cross-spectral analysis as well as univariate Box-Jenkinsrnmethodology to build Seasonal ARIMA model were used with the objective to analyzernrainfall pattern in Dire Dawa for the period from January, 1982-December, 2011 basedrnon data from Dire Dawa and adjacent stations: Dengego and Haramaya. DescriptivernStatistics result shows that the mean annual rainfall of Dire Dawa, Dengego andrnHaramaya are 611mm, 774 mm and 772mm, respectively. The amount of rainfall atrnDengego and Haramaya are more or less the same on average in all seasons, and arernmuch higher than that of Dire Dawa over the study period. The variability of annualrnrainfall in Dire Dawa during the last 30-year period is a bit larger than neighboringrnstation‟s rainfall (Dengego and Haramaya), indicating that climate instability is high inrnDire Dawa than other stations. A time series model for Dire Dawa station was adjusted,rnprocessed, diagnostically checked and lastly an ARIMA (5, 0, 0)*(0, 1, 1)12 model isrnestablished and this model is used to forecast two years monthly rainfall value. Thernresults indicate that relatively there is a tendency of increasing trend for forecastedrnrainfall values. Spectrum analysis result showed that a rainfall extreme event recurs everyrn2.5 years in Dire Dawa. Further results indicated that rainfall pattern of Dengego andrnDire Dawa are found to be more related

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Statistical Analysis Of Rainfall Pattern In Dire Dawa Eastern Ethiopia

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